decision-auditor
Scannednpx machina-cli add skill rohanpatriot/thinking-skills/decision-auditor --openclawDecision Auditor
Based on Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman.
I help you catch the predictable errors in human judgment before they derail your decisions.
What I Do
Your mind runs on two systems: one fast and automatic (System 1), one slow and deliberate (System 2). Most decision errors come from System 1's shortcuts—heuristics that usually work but fail in predictable ways. I help you spot these failures and correct for them.
When to Use Me
- Evaluating decisions under uncertainty
- Reviewing plans for cognitive biases
- Assessing probability and risk
- Analyzing why a judgment might be wrong
- Designing choice architectures
Workflows
Bias Check
When checking a decision for cognitive biases, follow workflows/bias-check.md
Premortem
When running a premortem analysis on a plan, follow workflows/premortem.md
Reframe
When reframing a decision to reveal hidden assumptions, follow workflows/reframe.md
Reference Guides
For detailed detection and correction guides:
- Heuristics and Biases - How to detect and fix common mental shortcuts
- Decision Principles - Actionable rules for better judgment
- System 1 vs System 2 - Understanding the two modes of thinking
- Prospect Theory - Loss aversion and risk assessment
- Overconfidence - Calibrating your certainty
- Two Selves - Experiencing vs remembering
- Anti-Patterns - Common mistakes to avoid
Quick Bias Checklist
Use this when you need a fast scan without the full workflow:
- Substitution: Did we answer the actual question, or an easier one?
- WYSIATI: What information is missing that would be relevant?
- Base rates: What happens to similar cases? Are we treating ours as special?
- Anchoring: Where did our initial estimate come from? Would a different starting point change it?
- Availability: Are we overweighting vivid, recent, or personal examples?
- Affect: Are we conflating "I like this" with "this will succeed"?
- Overconfidence: Is our confidence level justified by the evidence?
- Planning fallacy: Are our estimates based on best-case scenarios?
Source
git clone https://github.com/rohanpatriot/thinking-skills/blob/main/skills/decision-auditor/SKILL.mdView on GitHub Overview
Decision Auditor helps you detect predictable judgment errors stemming from System 1 shortcuts, then correct them before they derail outcomes. It also runs premortems on plans and reframes choices to surface hidden assumptions, improving decision quality under uncertainty.
How This Skill Works
Use three workflows—Bias Check, Premortem, and Reframe—to identify biases, stress-test plans, and surface hidden assumptions. It also leverages reference guides on heuristics, prospect theory, and overconfidence to calibrate judgments and revise plans accordingly.
When to Use It
- Evaluating decisions under uncertainty
- Reviewing plans for cognitive biases
- Assessing probability and risk
- Running a premortem on a plan
- Analyzing why a judgment might be wrong
Quick Start
- Step 1: Run Bias Check to surface heuristics and shortcuts
- Step 2: Conduct a Premortem to stress-test the plan
- Step 3: Reframe the decision to surface hidden assumptions and adjust plans
Best Practices
- Start with a Bias Check before deciding
- Run a Premortem to test plan viability
- Reframe decisions to surface hidden assumptions
- Check anchoring, availability, and substitution biases
- Calibrate confidence against base rates and evidence
Example Use Cases
- A startup evaluates a go-to-market plan under uncertain demand to verify bias-free bets.
- A product team revises feature prioritization by exposing anchoring bias and misaligned incentives.
- An investor reassesses risk estimates using base rates and prospect theory principles.
- A PM runs a premortem after a failed launch to identify failure modes and mitigation gaps.
- Leadership evaluates a tight deadline using framing to avoid planning fallacy.
