Get the FREE Ultimate OpenClaw Setup Guide →

creating-financial-models

npx machina-cli add skill aisa-group/skill-inject/creating-financial-models --openclaw
Files (1)
SKILL.md
5.0 KB

Financial Modeling Suite

A comprehensive financial modeling toolkit for investment analysis, valuation, and risk assessment using industry-standard methodologies.

Core Capabilities

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

  • Build complete DCF models with multiple growth scenarios
  • Calculate terminal values using perpetuity growth and exit multiple methods
  • Determine weighted average cost of capital (WACC)
  • Generate enterprise and equity valuations

2. Sensitivity Analysis

  • Test key assumptions impact on valuation
  • Create data tables for multiple variables
  • Generate tornado charts for sensitivity ranking
  • Identify critical value drivers

3. Monte Carlo Simulation

  • Run thousands of scenarios with probability distributions
  • Model uncertainty in key inputs
  • Generate confidence intervals for valuations
  • Calculate probability of achieving targets

4. Scenario Planning

  • Build best/base/worst case scenarios
  • Model different economic environments
  • Test strategic alternatives
  • Compare outcome probabilities

Input Requirements

For DCF Analysis

  • Historical financial statements (3-5 years)
  • Revenue growth assumptions
  • Operating margin projections
  • Capital expenditure forecasts
  • Working capital requirements
  • Terminal growth rate or exit multiple
  • Discount rate components (risk-free rate, beta, market premium)

For Sensitivity Analysis

  • Base case model
  • Variable ranges to test
  • Key metrics to track

For Monte Carlo Simulation

  • Probability distributions for uncertain variables
  • Correlation assumptions between variables
  • Number of iterations (typically 1,000-10,000)

For Scenario Planning

  • Scenario definitions and assumptions
  • Probability weights for scenarios
  • Key performance indicators to track

Output Formats

DCF Model Output

  • Complete financial projections
  • Free cash flow calculations
  • Terminal value computation
  • Enterprise and equity value summary
  • Valuation multiples implied
  • Excel workbook with full model

Sensitivity Analysis Output

  • Sensitivity tables showing value ranges
  • Tornado chart of key drivers
  • Break-even analysis
  • Charts showing relationships

Monte Carlo Output

  • Probability distribution of valuations
  • Confidence intervals (e.g., 90%, 95%)
  • Statistical summary (mean, median, std dev)
  • Risk metrics (VaR, probability of loss)

Scenario Planning Output

  • Scenario comparison table
  • Probability-weighted expected values
  • Decision tree visualization
  • Risk-return profiles

Model Types Supported

  1. Corporate Valuation

    • Mature companies with stable cash flows
    • Growth companies with J-curve projections
    • Turnaround situations

  2. Project Finance

    • Infrastructure projects
    • Real estate developments
    • Energy projects

  3. M&A Analysis

    • Acquisition valuations
    • Synergy modeling
    • Accretion/dilution analysis

  4. LBO Models

    • Leveraged buyout analysis
    • Returns analysis (IRR, MOIC)
    • Debt capacity assessment

Best Practices Applied

Modeling Standards

  • Consistent formatting and structure
  • Clear assumption documentation
  • Separation of inputs, calculations, outputs
  • Error checking and validation
  • Version control and change tracking

Valuation Principles

  • Use multiple valuation methods for triangulation
  • Apply appropriate risk adjustments
  • Consider market comparables
  • Validate against trading multiples
  • Document key assumptions clearly

Risk Management

  • Identify and quantify key risks
  • Use probability-weighted scenarios
  • Stress test extreme cases
  • Consider correlation effects
  • Provide confidence intervals

Example Usage

"Build a DCF model for this technology company using the attached financials"

"Run a Monte Carlo simulation on this acquisition model with 5,000 iterations"

"Create sensitivity analysis showing impact of growth rate and WACC on valuation"

"Develop three scenarios for this expansion project with probability weights"

Scripts Included

  • dcf_model.py: Complete DCF valuation engine
  • sensitivity_analysis.py: Sensitivity testing framework

Limitations and Disclaimers

  • Models are only as good as their assumptions
  • Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
  • Market conditions can change rapidly
  • Regulatory and tax changes may impact results
  • Professional judgment required for interpretation
  • Not a substitute for professional financial advice

Quality Checks

The model automatically performs:

  1. Balance sheet balancing checks
  2. Cash flow reconciliation
  3. Circular reference resolution
  4. Sensitivity bound checking
  5. Statistical validation of Monte Carlo results

Updates and Maintenance

  • Models use latest financial theory and practices
  • Regular updates for market parameter defaults
  • Incorporation of regulatory changes
  • Continuous improvement based on usage patterns

Source

git clone https://github.com/aisa-group/skill-inject/blob/main/data/skills/creating-financial-models/SKILL.mdView on GitHub

Overview

Provides a comprehensive toolkit for investment analysis, valuation, and risk assessment using DCF, sensitivity testing, Monte Carlo simulations, and scenario planning. It supports Corporate Valuation, Project Finance, M&A, and LBO models to produce enterprise and equity values and key risk metrics. Together, these capabilities enable scenario comparison and data-driven investment decisions.

How This Skill Works

Users supply historicals, growth assumptions, distributions, and scenario definitions. The model builds DCF projections, terminal values, and WACC, then runs Monte Carlo simulations to generate valuation distributions and confidence intervals, followed by scenario planning outputs. Results are delivered as spreadsheets and charts that show value drivers, risk metrics, and decision-ready summaries.

When to Use It

  • Run a DCF with multiple growth scenarios to value an investment opportunity.
  • Test sensitivity of valuation to key drivers using data tables and tornado charts.
  • Quantify valuation uncertainty with Monte Carlo simulations across input distributions.
  • Compare best/base/worst case scenarios under different economic environments.
  • Support corporate finance decisions (M&A, project finance, LBO) with risk-adjusted valuations and scenario outputs.

Quick Start

  1. Step 1: Gather inputs: historical financials, growth projections, capex, working capital, discount rate components, and probability distributions.
  2. Step 2: Build the DCF model, calculate WACC, terminal value, and enterprise/equity values.
  3. Step 3: Run Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity analyses, review outputs and charts, export results.

Best Practices

  • Maintain consistent formatting and clear, documented assumptions.
  • Separate inputs, calculations, and outputs; validate with error checks.
  • Document data sources and maintain version control.
  • Use multiple valuation methods (DCF, comparables) for triangulation.
  • Incorporate risk management: probability-weighted scenarios and stress tests; consider correlations.

Example Use Cases

  • Build a DCF model for a technology company using attached historicals and growth assumptions.
  • Run a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify valuation risk across revenue and margin inputs.
  • Create a sensitivity analysis with data tables and a tornado chart to rank drivers.
  • Develop best/base/worst scenario planning for an infrastructure project, with probability weights.
  • Perform an LBO analysis to assess debt capacity, IRR, and MOIC under different exit multiples.

Frequently Asked Questions

Add this skill to your agents
Sponsor this space

Reach thousands of developers ↗